In a recent research report released on Tuesday, Bernstein analysts have expressed strong confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory, predicting a surge to $150,000 per coin by mid-2025. Despite recent market corrections, the firm highlights a significant shift from sentiment-driven to structurally-driven demand in Bitcoin markets, primarily led by institutional interest and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Following a brief dip to approximately $57,000, Bitcoin has resumed its upward momentum, with Bernstein attributing this resurgence to the clearing of excess leverage in futures contracts and a notable reversal in ETF outflows. A noteworthy development is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (NYSE: GBTC) reporting its first inflow after 78 consecutive days of outflows, marking a milestone in market dynamics.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s current position around $64,000 is viewed as just the beginning of its ascent. The analysts emphasize that the market’s structure is notably stronger than during the euphoria of 2021 at similar price levels, primarily propelled by evident ETF-driven demand.
Further bolstering the bullish outlook is the substantial influx of cash into Bitcoin ETFs, amassing nearly $12 billion within a mere three months of their launch. Bernstein anticipates this trend to continue, driven by increased allocations from private banks, wealth managers, and institutional investors, with a projected $70 billion in new inflows between 2024 and 2025.
The report also highlights favorable regulatory developments and corporate adoption, citing examples such as Block integrating Bitcoin into treasury strategies. Additionally, the stability in Bitcoin’s hash rate post-halving and robust miner transaction fees indicate a resilient mining sector poised for sustained market growth.
Despite mining stocks lagging behind the Bitcoin rally due to investor preference for a “long Bitcoin, short miners” strategy, Bernstein underscores positive dynamics in the mining sector. Public miners are expanding capacity and negotiating favorable terms amid competitive pressures, particularly from AI capital expenditures.
With these factors in consideration, Bernstein maintains its confident stance on the $150,000 Bitcoin target, viewing current prices as an attractive risk-reward opportunity for investors. The firm asserts that we are in the nascent stages of a prolonged and robust Bitcoin cycle that could extend well into 2025.
